Disciplines
Data Science
Abstract (300 words maximum)
This research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, where an attack is defined as successful if the intended attack type is carried out. Data from The Global Terrorism Database (https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd) was analyzed across three geographical missions within Operation Enduring Freedom: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines. The three models were able to distinguish between successful and unsuccessful attacks at 78.74%, 82.11%, 74.25%, respectively. Using predicted probabilities of success obtained from each logistic regression models, the medians were plotted to compare the characteristics of terrorist attacks across missions. The coefficients for each model were analyzed to compare the odds of success for each variable level to the odds of success of the reference level for that variable. Lastly, the coordinates for successful and unsuccessful attacks as classified by the dataset was plotted to explore spatial patterns in regional maps. Many insights were gathered through analyzing Operation Enduring Freedom missions. It is shown that terrorists are successful in their aims to terrorize. Attacks targeting private citizens, tourists, non-governmental organizations, and food or water supply, have the largest probability of success for the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa missions. The odds of an attack succeeding when it involves a barricade incident with hostages is 10,491 times greater the odds of an attack succeeding when it involves bombing. Suicide attacks in the Philippines raise the chance of success, in contrast to the other two missions. The predicted probability of success when explosives and firearms are used in the Philippines is lower than the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa. By determining the specific characteristics of attacks that produce the highest probabilities of success, the effectiveness of Operation Enduring Freedom can be improved by focusing counter-terrorism training and operations on the features that predict successful attacks.
Academic department under which the project should be listed
CCSE - Data Science and Analytics
Primary Investigator (PI) Name
Susan Hardy
Additional Faculty
Austin Brown, CCSE - Data Science and Analytics, abrow708@kennesaw.edu
Included in
OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM: Improving Mission Effectiveness by Identifying Trends in Successful Terrorism
This research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, where an attack is defined as successful if the intended attack type is carried out. Data from The Global Terrorism Database (https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd) was analyzed across three geographical missions within Operation Enduring Freedom: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines. The three models were able to distinguish between successful and unsuccessful attacks at 78.74%, 82.11%, 74.25%, respectively. Using predicted probabilities of success obtained from each logistic regression models, the medians were plotted to compare the characteristics of terrorist attacks across missions. The coefficients for each model were analyzed to compare the odds of success for each variable level to the odds of success of the reference level for that variable. Lastly, the coordinates for successful and unsuccessful attacks as classified by the dataset was plotted to explore spatial patterns in regional maps. Many insights were gathered through analyzing Operation Enduring Freedom missions. It is shown that terrorists are successful in their aims to terrorize. Attacks targeting private citizens, tourists, non-governmental organizations, and food or water supply, have the largest probability of success for the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa missions. The odds of an attack succeeding when it involves a barricade incident with hostages is 10,491 times greater the odds of an attack succeeding when it involves bombing. Suicide attacks in the Philippines raise the chance of success, in contrast to the other two missions. The predicted probability of success when explosives and firearms are used in the Philippines is lower than the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa. By determining the specific characteristics of attacks that produce the highest probabilities of success, the effectiveness of Operation Enduring Freedom can be improved by focusing counter-terrorism training and operations on the features that predict successful attacks.