An Ordinary Differential Equations Model to Assess the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Fluoride Varnish for Young Children
Disciplines
Dental Public Health and Education | Ordinary Differential Equations and Applied Dynamics | Other Biomedical Engineering and Bioengineering | Systems and Integrative Engineering | Systems Engineering | Vital and Health Statistics
Abstract (300 words maximum)
Receipt of fluoride varnish (FV) is recommended at regular intervals as soon as teeth emerge to help prevent dental decay. This project leverages modeling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to offer insights into the impact and cost-effectiveness of increasing FV application among children aged 1-5.
We employ a modeling approach including five health states, perfect dental health through early decay and decay, for pediatric teeth, with and without FV application. The transition rates between these states are determined through a combination of prior research findings and nationally available dental health data. Traditionally, modeling of oral health dynamics has been done using Markov models. Here we use an ODE-based model, commonly used in other healthcare modeling. ODEs offer a continuous representation of dental health dynamics, to capture continuous changes in dental enamel remineralization, making it well-suited for modeling the impact of FV applications on young children's dental health over time. The simulation model is implemented in MATLAB, following a large hypothetical population with an initial age of one year.
We present simulation results on the impact of FV application on the progression and regression of early decay, overall number of cavities, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We calculate cost-effectiveness in cost per averted cavity and cost per averted DALY. We then compare model results from the ODE to those from a more conventional Markov model. This research represents the first use of ODE modeling to analyze oral health intervention strategies, thus providing a novel framework for oral health research.
While Markov models have traditionally been the only choice for oral healthcare cost-effectiveness analysis, the ODE-based approach shows promise in this context, allowing for considering continuous dynamics in the evaluation process. Results of this research also demonstrate that FV application is cost-effective under a reasonable variety of assumptions and treatment intervals.
Academic department under which the project should be listed
SPCEET - Industrial and Systems Engineering
Primary Investigator (PI) Name
Christina Scherrer
Presentation
An Ordinary Differential Equations Model to Assess the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Fluoride Varnish for Young Children
Receipt of fluoride varnish (FV) is recommended at regular intervals as soon as teeth emerge to help prevent dental decay. This project leverages modeling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to offer insights into the impact and cost-effectiveness of increasing FV application among children aged 1-5.
We employ a modeling approach including five health states, perfect dental health through early decay and decay, for pediatric teeth, with and without FV application. The transition rates between these states are determined through a combination of prior research findings and nationally available dental health data. Traditionally, modeling of oral health dynamics has been done using Markov models. Here we use an ODE-based model, commonly used in other healthcare modeling. ODEs offer a continuous representation of dental health dynamics, to capture continuous changes in dental enamel remineralization, making it well-suited for modeling the impact of FV applications on young children's dental health over time. The simulation model is implemented in MATLAB, following a large hypothetical population with an initial age of one year.
We present simulation results on the impact of FV application on the progression and regression of early decay, overall number of cavities, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We calculate cost-effectiveness in cost per averted cavity and cost per averted DALY. We then compare model results from the ODE to those from a more conventional Markov model. This research represents the first use of ODE modeling to analyze oral health intervention strategies, thus providing a novel framework for oral health research.
While Markov models have traditionally been the only choice for oral healthcare cost-effectiveness analysis, the ODE-based approach shows promise in this context, allowing for considering continuous dynamics in the evaluation process. Results of this research also demonstrate that FV application is cost-effective under a reasonable variety of assumptions and treatment intervals.