Academic department under which the project should be listed

RCHSS - Geography & Anthropology

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Faculty Sponsor Name

Dr. Paul McDaniel

Abstract (300 words maximum)

In 1929, Warren Thompson created an interpretation of the history of global human demographics that could theoretically predict the pattern that populations followed and would follow. This interpretation is now known today as the theory of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). Broken down into 5 stages of varying rates of birth, death, and population change, the DTM shows how these three factors are predicted to eventually play out across the world given various factors. Stage 4 is characterized by a low, relatively stable population and low death rate coupled with a declining birth rate. Countries that are considered to be in this stage of demographic transition exist around the world. Yet, such countries are quite different from each other when it comes to geographic location, culture, and history. This project focuses on the following questions: What countries are in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition model, and how did they get there? Are there factors that these different countries share that may have pushed them into a stage 4 status in the twenty-first century? If so, are there any countries that are considered to be in stage 3 that will soon be in stage 4 due to these factors happening right now? Anticipated research discoveries include finding countries such as the United States, Australia, Singapore, Canada and most of Europe in stage 4 of the DTM. One of the main causes for these countries to be in stage 4 may be the introduction and the social acceptance of family planning resources. The increase of industry, the decrease for the need of agricultural-based lifestyles, war/political events and the development of modern medicine are also likely leading factors contributing to a stage 4 status.

Disciplines

Human Geography

Project Type

Oral Presentation (15-min time slots)

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A Geographic Analysis of Countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model

In 1929, Warren Thompson created an interpretation of the history of global human demographics that could theoretically predict the pattern that populations followed and would follow. This interpretation is now known today as the theory of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). Broken down into 5 stages of varying rates of birth, death, and population change, the DTM shows how these three factors are predicted to eventually play out across the world given various factors. Stage 4 is characterized by a low, relatively stable population and low death rate coupled with a declining birth rate. Countries that are considered to be in this stage of demographic transition exist around the world. Yet, such countries are quite different from each other when it comes to geographic location, culture, and history. This project focuses on the following questions: What countries are in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition model, and how did they get there? Are there factors that these different countries share that may have pushed them into a stage 4 status in the twenty-first century? If so, are there any countries that are considered to be in stage 3 that will soon be in stage 4 due to these factors happening right now? Anticipated research discoveries include finding countries such as the United States, Australia, Singapore, Canada and most of Europe in stage 4 of the DTM. One of the main causes for these countries to be in stage 4 may be the introduction and the social acceptance of family planning resources. The increase of industry, the decrease for the need of agricultural-based lifestyles, war/political events and the development of modern medicine are also likely leading factors contributing to a stage 4 status.

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