# Get Your Game On: Betting Strategies for the NFL Betting Lines

## Disciplines

Applied Statistics | Categorical Data Analysis | Other Statistics and Probability | Probability | Statistical Methodology | Statistical Models

## Abstract (300 words maximum)

Betting on NFL games is something that has been illegal until 2018. States are currently starting to allow it. People can bet on things such as who they think will win a game and how much a team will win by. People can also bet on whether the total points scored in a game is going to go over or under the total points that Las Vegas is predicting. NFL games are now coming to the forefront of the betting world. My research examines outdoor NFL games and whether windspeed, temperature or humidity have any effects on the outcome of the game.

Using loglinear regression, I seek to determine which variables predict if the score will go over or under what Las Vegas predicts. In addition, using Analysis of Variance, I researched if the total number of points both teams score in the game depends on when in the season that game was played. I follow these analyses with a nonparametric test called the Permutation Test for the Slope to examine which variables had an effect on the number of points that the team is going to win by (Spread Favorite). Lastly, Multiple Linear Regression was used to determine if windspeed, temperature, or humidity affected the total number of points that were scored in the game by both teams. Using my results, a person will have more insight on how to bet for NFL outdoor games.

## Academic department under which the project should be listed

CCSE - Data Science and Analytics

## Primary Investigator (PI) Name

Susan Mathews Hardy

Austin Brown, Statistics & Analytical Sciences, abrow708@kennesaw.edu

## Share

COinS

Get Your Game On: Betting Strategies for the NFL Betting Lines

Betting on NFL games is something that has been illegal until 2018. States are currently starting to allow it. People can bet on things such as who they think will win a game and how much a team will win by. People can also bet on whether the total points scored in a game is going to go over or under the total points that Las Vegas is predicting. NFL games are now coming to the forefront of the betting world. My research examines outdoor NFL games and whether windspeed, temperature or humidity have any effects on the outcome of the game.

Using loglinear regression, I seek to determine which variables predict if the score will go over or under what Las Vegas predicts. In addition, using Analysis of Variance, I researched if the total number of points both teams score in the game depends on when in the season that game was played. I follow these analyses with a nonparametric test called the Permutation Test for the Slope to examine which variables had an effect on the number of points that the team is going to win by (Spread Favorite). Lastly, Multiple Linear Regression was used to determine if windspeed, temperature, or humidity affected the total number of points that were scored in the game by both teams. Using my results, a person will have more insight on how to bet for NFL outdoor games.