Dynamic responses of energy prices to oil price shocks
Department
Economics, Finance and Quantitative Analysis
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-26-2023
Abstract
Purpose: This study examines the dynamic responses of five different daily energy prices to a pulse shock affecting the daily price of oil. Design/methodology/approach: Daily data for energy prices from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for January 7, 1997, through February 8, 2021, are analyzed. A bivariate structural vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic model are combined and extended by adding the volatility of the growth rate of daily oil prices as an explanatory variable for the growth rates of energy prices. This model is estimated and used to generate impulse responses for energy prices. Findings: The empirical results show that the levels of the daily energy prices examined have unit roots, are integrated of order one, are cointegrated, and generally revert slowly to their long-term equilibrium relationships with the price of oil. The growth rates for the daily energy prices have autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, generally are positively related to the volatility of daily oil prices, respond quickly to a pulse shock to daily oil prices, and have cumulative responses that last at least one month. Originality/value: This paper allows for simultaneous estimation of extended bivariate structural vector error correction and generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic models that include the volatility of oil as an explanatory variable and uses these models to generated cumulative impulse responses for the growth rates of daily energy prices to oil price shocks.
Journal Title
Managerial Finance
Journal ISSN
03074358
Volume
49
Issue
2
First Page
357
Last Page
377
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
10.1108/MF-07-2021-0321