A risk analytics model for strategic workforce planning: readiness of enlisted military personnel
Department
Economics, Finance and Quantitative Analysis
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2023
Abstract
We develop a dynamic stochastic model of military workforce planning that incorporates uncertainties about personnel gains and losses across ranks. We then apply it to determine the probability of not meeting required targets as well as the resulting shortages and overages in the short, medium, and long terms along with the evaluation of policies to mitigate these risks. Our model allows decision makers to adjust recruiting and training practices to minimize the risk of not meeting target personnel levels as well as to value retention and reenlistment policies by calculating the expected marginal value of retaining additional service members. Moreover, it allows us to create a penalty function to optimize recruiting and training levels. The outcome is a tool to evaluate and ensure comprehensive force readiness.
Journal Title
Annals of Operations Research
Journal ISSN
02545330
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
10.1007/s10479-023-05567-0