Date of Award

Spring 4-12-2024

Degree Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in International Conflict Management


School of Conflict Management, Peacebuilding and Development

Committee Chair/First Advisor

Akanmu Adebayo, Ph.D

Second Advisor

Sherrill Hayes, Ph.D

Third Advisor

Brian Polkinghorn, Ph.D



This study contributes to the widely asked question, ‘Why do negotiated agreements fail’? Post-agreement reversions to war have cataclysmic consequences. The literature on the durability of negotiated agreements relates the failure of peace agreements to several factors including, preparation/planning; specificity of the terms of the negotiated agreement; poor implementation provisions and burdening cost of implementation; power sharing—military, political, economic, territory; context/environment; spoiler effects; international third parties security guarantees; third party economic and policy interests; mediator skill, and nature of the dispute; unsettled historical issues; key stakeholder/citizen participation, etc. The study identifies an additional factor in the literature: a peace process conceptualization problem--the practice of aiming for the outcome of a negotiated agreement instead of the outcome of a successfully implemented agreement. To address this logistical problem and improve negotiated outcomes, the study predicts through a meta-theoretical framework (Implementation Goal Framework) that implementation goal-oriented preparation that includes a comprehensive contingency plan is likely to yield more durable peace outcomes. The study’s hypothesis is that ‘better preparation positively influences agreement implementation outcomes.’ Using multinominal logistic regression technique, the study tested this prediction relying on two secondary datasets on peace agreement and implementation, focusing on African countries with ‘Country-years’ in Africa as the unit of analysis. The results partially support the hypothesis that better preparation, operationalized by selected predictors, positively influences successful agreement implementation. Based on the findings, this predictive research aims to create a paradigm shift in scholarly and policy thinking on negotiated outcomes by a model that would assist in making negotiated agreements last, thereby also providing additional strategy and data for advancing future research and navigating the complex challenges of peace processes and outcomes.

Available for download on Sunday, May 09, 2027