Semester of Graduation

Spring 2026

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

International Conflict Management

Department

Radow College of Humanities and Social Sciences

Committee Chair/First Advisor

Dr. Maia Hallward

Second Advisor

Dr. Tavishi Bhasin

Third Advisor

Dr. Kristina Hook

Fourth Advisor

Dr. Rachel Whitlark

Abstract

his dissertation examines how partisan polarization and party affiliation shape US participation in nuclear agreements. Consensus views within the nuclear policy community hold that Republican governments are necessary to make new agreements, but Republicans generally oppose new nuclear restrictions. Prompted by a trio of agreement terminations between 2018 and 2020, this research tests whether polarization has become a structural factor restricting US engagement in nuclear agreements. Using an original dataset of 86 nuclear agreements spanning arms control and extended deterrence between 1948–2024, this dissertation uses a quantitatively focused embedded mixed-methods design complemented by senior nuclear policy practitioner interviews. This research integrates an empirical measure of polarization to examine shifts in agreement formality while capturing three stages of the agreement lifecycle: creation, entry into force, and termination. Findings show that as polarization rises, the US creates fewer nuclear agreements, new agreements shift from formal treaties to less binding political commitments, and existing agreements lose durability. Presidential party affiliation was not significant in any model. Republican government control lowered the likelihood of an agreement reaching ratification, contradicting the practitioner consensus, while the Senate emerged as a fragile but consequential factor at ratification. Practitioner accounts suggest both parties face symmetric barriers to agreement-making aligned to party identity. Democrats negotiate but resist building military leverage, while Republicans build leverage but resist negotiating new agreements. These findings carry direct implications for conflict management as a lack of negotiation-based approaches for managing strategic competition between nuclear-armed states may increase the risks of conflict.

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