Document Type
Event
Start Date
1-12-2022 5:00 PM
Description
This research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, where an attack is defined as successful if the intended attack type is carried out. Data was analyzed across three geographical missions within Operation Enduring Freedom: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines. Using predicted probabilities of success obtained from logistic regression models, the medians were plotted to compare the characteristics of terrorist attacks across missions. By determining the specific features of attacks that produce the highest probabilities of success, the effectiveness of Operation Enduring Freedom can be improved by focusing counter-terrorism training and operations on the features that predict successful attacks.
Included in
UR-285 OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM: Improving Mission Effectiveness by Identifying Trends in Successful Terrorism
This research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, where an attack is defined as successful if the intended attack type is carried out. Data was analyzed across three geographical missions within Operation Enduring Freedom: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines. Using predicted probabilities of success obtained from logistic regression models, the medians were plotted to compare the characteristics of terrorist attacks across missions. By determining the specific features of attacks that produce the highest probabilities of success, the effectiveness of Operation Enduring Freedom can be improved by focusing counter-terrorism training and operations on the features that predict successful attacks.