Analyzing Fluctuations of Fuel Price Index with Economic Conditions
Disciplines
Construction Engineering | Economics
Abstract (300 words maximum)
(GDOT) The fuel price index (FPI) is an essential indicator for estimating, monitoring, and managing transportation infrastructure cost. Due to the significant fluctuation of the FPI, cost estimators/engineers encounter critical uncertainty for estimating transportation project costs. Thus, this research aims to analyze the fuel price index with external factors.
This study employs a quantitative analysis to analyze fuel price fluctuations in Georgia from January 2007 to December 2014. Monthly data on fuel prices is collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT), allowing for a detailed temporal analysis of price trends. This analysis indicates the Visualization of the trends of the fuel price index to measure the shifts of fuel price between the recession and non-recession periods based on established economic indicators. To assess the statistical significance of price variations between these periods, both parametric tests (such as t-tests) and non-parametric tests, (such as Mann-Whitney U test) are utilized. This study also conducted regression analysis to provide better understanding of the relationships between fuel prices and economic conditions. This study found that there are significant changes in the FPI during the recession period. In addition, the several factors, such as gas prices and project expenditure, significantly influenced the FPI.
The analysis of the index variable reveals essential trends and fluctuations, especially during recessionary periods, aiding in the prediction of economic cycles. These insights allow policymakers to allocate resources effectively and prioritize strategic investments during downturns to support recovery and growth. Additionally, the data helps forecast demand for the transportation infrastructure, enabling better planning and scheduling of maintenance and upgrades.
Academic department under which the project should be listed
CACM - Construction Management
Primary Investigator (PI) Name
Minsoo Baek
Analyzing Fluctuations of Fuel Price Index with Economic Conditions
(GDOT) The fuel price index (FPI) is an essential indicator for estimating, monitoring, and managing transportation infrastructure cost. Due to the significant fluctuation of the FPI, cost estimators/engineers encounter critical uncertainty for estimating transportation project costs. Thus, this research aims to analyze the fuel price index with external factors.
This study employs a quantitative analysis to analyze fuel price fluctuations in Georgia from January 2007 to December 2014. Monthly data on fuel prices is collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT), allowing for a detailed temporal analysis of price trends. This analysis indicates the Visualization of the trends of the fuel price index to measure the shifts of fuel price between the recession and non-recession periods based on established economic indicators. To assess the statistical significance of price variations between these periods, both parametric tests (such as t-tests) and non-parametric tests, (such as Mann-Whitney U test) are utilized. This study also conducted regression analysis to provide better understanding of the relationships between fuel prices and economic conditions. This study found that there are significant changes in the FPI during the recession period. In addition, the several factors, such as gas prices and project expenditure, significantly influenced the FPI.
The analysis of the index variable reveals essential trends and fluctuations, especially during recessionary periods, aiding in the prediction of economic cycles. These insights allow policymakers to allocate resources effectively and prioritize strategic investments during downturns to support recovery and growth. Additionally, the data helps forecast demand for the transportation infrastructure, enabling better planning and scheduling of maintenance and upgrades.