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Abstract

Inundation models tend to cover geographically small areas at large-scales. Inconsistencies in research design arising from data classification methods and consensus about unit of analysis, and agreement on the choice of a consistent modeling method can lead to confusion in the selection of appropriate models for different inundation scenarios. To address these concerns, this study aims to expand on the Frequency Ratio Method, using 13 quantitative and qualitative variables, as a generalizable method that can be applied consistently across larger administrative areas such as the province. The ultimate product of this is a Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI), which can be mapped and used to assess inundation risk and vulnerability across administrative units. The model was validated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) method. The method had a very good predictive quality based on the expected success rate of 82.77% and an observed prediction accuracy rate of 83.25 %. The high prediction accuracy of the FRM is a strong indication that the FSI could have value in planning and policy making.

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