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Abstract

Climate indices provide a useful way to characterize climate. The objective of this study is to rank the past 37 winters (1970-1971 to 2006-2007) in Buffalo, New York using a ‘Severe Winter Index’ (SWI) that incorporates a number of winter-related elements. Five elements were chosen to reflect varying aspects of a winter season: snowfall amount, number of days with 12 inches or greater of snow on the ground, heating degree days (HDD), number of days with temperatures at or below 0o F, and percent cloudiness during daylight hours. Data were obtained from the Buffalo Forecast Office of the National Weather Service. The SWI normalized each element by calculating the percentile-ranking of each data point within the data set. Each element was given equal weighting. The 1983-1984 winter season was the most severe, followed by 1977-1978 and 1976-1977. The mildest was the 1990-1991 winter season. ‘Severe’ winter seasons tend to group in the dataset, occurring for no more than three consecutive years. The SWI exhibits a decreasing trend and greater variability in winter severity. While ‘Severe’ and ‘Average’ winters can be expected, there appears to be a growing tendency for ‘Mild’ winters.

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