Football Betting and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Document Type


Publication Date

Fall 1996


Three betting rules which had been nonrandomly profitable in both their initial application to the 1969-74 National Football League seasons and their replication during the years of 1975-81 were applied to all NFL games played between September 1984 and January 1994. One rule proved to be nonrandom and profitable for a third consecutive trial--a feat suggesting that bettors may be able to "beat the bookie" and, more broadly, that prices in competitive markets may not discount all available information in swift fashion.