A History of Revenue Forecasts
Feenberg et al. (1989) apply a simple regression-based method to test the rationality of state revenue forecasts. Using the same regression-based methodology, we test the rationality of federal revenue forecasts for fiscal year 1802 through 2001. We find that Treasury forecasts of federal revenues satisfy the conditions of weak rationality.
Rider, M. (2002). A History of Revenue Forecasts. Public Finance And Management, 2(3), 470-487.