The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test of Football-Betting Market Efficiency
Economics, Finance, & Quantitative Analysis
Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.
Kochman, L., & Badarinathi, R. (2011). The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test of Football-Betting Market Efficiency. Virginia Economic Journal, 1665-67.