Title

The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test of Football-Betting Market Efficiency

Department

Economics, Finance, & Quantitative Analysis

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2011

Abstract

Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.

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